Uncharted Waters’ Food Security Indicator
Q4 2024
Uncharted Waters are proud to announce the release of the beta version of our Food Security Indicator (FSI). This first release provides the FSI for the 4th quarter of 2024. Utilising observed climate data, the latest generation of crop modelling, and our bespoke digital twin for global food trade, FOODDivider, the FSI provides a near real-time metric for the stability of food access across the globe at the individual country level.
Our FSI incorporates measures such as access to specific food types, the level of inequality and conflict within countries, and regional food instability. Benchmarked against other available food security measures from organisations such as the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), and assessed for historical representativeness, we are confident that the UW FSI can provide insights into those countries and regions where people may be at risk of inadequate food security.
The FSI is currently deployed at a country-level resolution using data calculated or aggregated to the same level.
The Global Situation
Our analysis reveals several regions experiencing significant food insecurity, including parts of Central America and the Caribbean, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil, Ukraine, Myanmar, Syria and other parts of West Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Libya, and several Pacific Island nations including Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu.
Figure 1: Food Security Indicator for Q4 2024. Lower scores (darker brown) indicate lower food security. Source: Uncharted Waters. Conflict metrics used data from ACLED (accesses 07/01/2025 from acleddata.com)
The drivers of low FSI vary considerably by region. Severe conflict, including inter-state wars such as in Ukraine, intra-state conflicts in Myanmar and Sudan, and criminal activity and societal unrest in Mexico, significantly affects food security across the globe. Regional insecurity appears to be creating challenges in Eastern Africa and the Indo-Pacific. Economic inequality within countries is intensifying food insecurity risks in Southern Africa and Central and South America. Trade and production factors predominantly impact nations in Africa, particularly Somalia, Eritrea, Equatorial Guinea, and Eswatini.
Figure 2: Food Security Indicator for Q4 2024 for sub-Saharan Africa. Lower scores (darker brown) indicate lower food security.
Changes from Q3 2024
Between Q3 and Q4 2024, our analysis shows no major changes in the global food security landscape. The most notable improvement is seen in Guinea, with North African countries generally experiencing modest gains in food security. These improvements are mostly driven by increased food availability either through increased production or trade flows. In some cases, improvements reflect increased availability of specific food groups. Despite these gains, the modelled situation remains fragile, with the FSI remaining low in many of the region's nations.
A handle of countries, all located within Africa, have seen relevant declines in food security. According to our digital twin, Madagascar and Burundi have seen decreased ability to meet food demand, both in terms of total kilocalorie requirements and for specific food groups. This does not appear to be related to production anomalies but is likely driven by trade dynamics. Similarly, Zambia and Benin show FSI reductions primarily due to declining availability of specific food groups, also attributed to trade influences.
Madagascar's modelled food storage has been depleted, likely reflecting attempts to buffer the trade impacts. The FSI decline in all four countries has been somewhat mitigated by general improvement in regional FSI, assumed to aid in the stability of food access.
Figure 3: Change in Food Security Indicator from previous quarter over sub-Saharan Africa. Brown indicates that the food security situation has declined while green indicates it has improved.
Future Developments
We continue to improve and validate our FSI. We are planning a version based on subnational production and demand estimates, which will provide more granular information on where food insecurity is most severe within countries. We are also examining regions where food production heavily depends on irrigation that exceeds natural recharge rates and is unsustainable long-term. Our aim is to highlight how this might affect food security not only locally but also in countries that import food produced using such water resources. Additionally, we continue to enhance our seasonal forecasts.
Our FSI can complement existing approaches such as the FAO Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), which often struggle to access necessary data in conflict areas. It can also serve alongside early warning systems such as the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS Net), which is currently unavailable and at risk due to a reorientation of US funding and support.
Key Insights
Food insecurity remains a significant threat across multiple global regions. The rise in severe conflict and violence across various categories represents the greatest threat in many areas. Nations lacking the economic capacity to offset production issues with imports are also vulnerable. Such countries are likely to experience further declines in food security if exposed to climate change impacts. Areas already affected by climate extremes, such as the extensive floods and droughts seen in 2024 across sub-Saharan Africa, face greater insecurity risks, especially if unable to compete effectively in global trade.
For more information, please contact us.